Troll Sports LabMichigan high school sports
Basketball opening week: boys Nov 30 to Dec 6, girls Dec 7 to 13, 2026

Predictive modeling of
Michigan high school basketball

Win odds, spreads, projected scores and totals for every varsity game, boys and girls. Start with this week’s best games below, then pick a side for the full schedule.

We’re starting with basketball.

Preseason build: until teams play, ratings come from last season’s results, pulled toward average. Early odds are less certain, and ratings update every weekend once games are played.

Basketball

Boys619 games this week, 37 with a top 25 team#1 Rockford · 0-0Open the boys page Girls642 games this week, 51 with a top 25 team#1 Belleville · 0-0Open the girls page

Mac’s best games this week

Boys and girls, ranked by team strength and how close the game is projected to be

Want every game? See the full boys schedule or the full girls schedule. Tap any team name to open its page.

Upset alerts and closest games

Underdogs with a real shot, and games that could go either way

Upset alerts

Underdog win chance and who they are facing

Closest games

Win chances within 3 points of 50%

Top 5 teams right now

Rating is points better than the average MHSAA team. Boys and girls use separate scales, so compare teams within a sport.

Boys

Top 5 of 705 rated teams

Girls

Top 5 of 651 rated teams

Each page also has a top 10 for every division. Boys · Girls

Conference snapshot

Beta: conference lists are still being verified

Pick any two teams and play the game thousands of times. Each page has its own simulator, so choose a side.

How often are we right?

Last season's back-test, mid-season picks

Boys

2,249 games, February 9 to the end of the season
81.8%winners picked right
9.4 ptsaverage spread miss

Girls

2,653 games, February 9 to the end of the season
84.9%winners picked right
9.2 ptsaverage spread miss

See how we compare with simple rules and how honest our percentages are on the report card. Live tracking starts when 2026-27 games are played.

How to use Troll Sports Lab

1

Pick boys or girls

Use the two big buttons at the top, or the menu. Each side has its own schedule, odds and top 10 lists.

2

Tap any team

A team name opens its page: rating trend, offense and defense, schedule strength, results and this week’s games.

3

Try the simulator

Pick two teams and see their win chances, a chart of likely scores, and one game played quarter by quarter.